At a recent conference on the future of electronics manufacturing, the Chief Architect of Intel, Raja Koduri, presented a compelling picture for delivering a 1000 times increase in the power of AI systems by 2025.
He counts on the ecosystem of third parties, as well as Intel’s engineering prowess, to achieve a 4x improvement in several key areas: memory, interconnect, architecture, software, and packaging. Since the improvement of four times of each multiplies with the improvement of all the others,4x4x4x4x4 = 4^5 = 1024. That is the relatively simple elementary calculation to deliver at the end the thousandfold improvement.
This is many times faster than Moore’s law. Whether we are talking about Moore’s Law, or the increasing acceleration of Jolting Technologies, these are not natural laws. They only happen as self fulfilling prophecies.
It is hard to wrap our heads around the implications of such an increasing rate of innovation. But one thing is sure, it is important to change the mindset. It is not enough to think about exponentials anymore.
The increasing rate of acceleration of technology innovation, as implemented in products and services across an entire industry has become the dominating paradigm. Jolting technologies must be understood, adopted, implemented in order to be able to lead over the course of the third decade of the 21st century.