What does it mean that Elon Musk is jolting? He understands that in order to reach the ambitious missions of his companies in time, exponential change is not enough anymore. To transition humanity to renewable energy before runaway climate change creates irreversible damage, Tesla must produce cars, solar systems, batteries, in such volumes, that it […]
Elon Musk Is Jolting Read More »
At a recent conference on the future of electronics manufacturing, the Chief Architect of Intel, Raja Koduri, presented a compelling picture for delivering a 1000 times increase in the power of AI systems by 2025. He counts on the ecosystem of third parties, as well as Intel’s engineering prowess, to achieve a 4x improvement in
Jolting Technologies are those characterized by an increasing rate of acceleration. When I formulated the paradigm of Jolting Technologies, I had very few data points to start from. I looked at the increasing acceleration in the power of AI applications. In particular I criticized Stanford University’s approach which used a linear interpolation on a logarithmic
NVIDIA Proves that AI Is Jolting Read More »
The lack of adequate response by so many governments to the pandemic, even when plenty of positive and negative examples were already available from other countries that have been impacted before them, is a sign that maybe the mental models that are applied to the decision making are inadequate. The pandemic is not merely exponential.
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Between 2012 and 2018 the power of the infrastructure available for applications in artificial intelligence increased over three hundred thousand times. If it followed Moore’s law, it would have been much less, around 7 times or so. Stanford University in its 2019 report on AI, and in a blog post OpenAI analyzed and illustrated this
The rate of technology adoption changes based on individual preferences and social norms. Accelerating and jolting technologies force an increasing rate of adoption, that put a pressure on individuals and societies to confront the limits that they imposed on themselves. But technology is so useful, that even those who hate it, use it. The precautionary
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Quantum computers have been under development for decades. Are they about to start delivering on their promise? Jolting technologies, where the acceleration is increasing, can burst onto the scene very suddenly. The quantum phenomena, on which the new architectures are based, needed a long time to be understood and applied. We are still in the
There is a paradigm shift moving from accelerating technological change to jolting technological change. What is a jolt? The jolt is the measure of the rate of change of acceleration. Imagine a rocket. The engines are at full power, and the rocket brings on board both its propellant and its oxidant. As they chemically combine
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As broadcast live on Chinese national TV, and announced by the People’s Daily Online, now a second nation alongside Russia is capable of sending a human crew in space for extended missions. I wonder when the US will also gain this technological capability?
Now a second nation capable of sending humans in space! Read More »
